The NFL Combine is set to begin Monday, with 319 invitees set to participate in some fashion.
Of those prospects, 16 of them are quarterbacks. However, one of them — arguably the most anticipated prospect of the entire draft — isn't going to throw a single football: Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza will reportedly forgo throwing in Indianapolis to instead focus on other aspects of the Combine. (Though it's still a possibility that he'll throw at the Hoosiers' Pro Day later in the spring.)
The 2025-26 Heisman Trophy winner is widely expected to be selected first overall by the Las Vegas Raiders, especially with Dante Moore, LaNorris Sellers and Arch Manning removing themselves from a pretty weak QB class. But as we've seen in previous offseasons, the decision to throw or not to throw at the Combine can have some serious ripple effects. This is how Mendoza's choice could impact the upcoming tests and evaluations.
Another QB has the chance to shine and fool a team into reaching
Below are the remaining 15 QB prospects fans and teams will watch participate in Indianapolis:
- Joey Aguilar, Tennessee
- Drew Allar, Penn State
- Luke Altmyer, Illinois
- Carson Beck, Miami
- Jalon Daniels, Kansas
- Joe Fagnano, UConn
- Taylen Green, Arkansas
- Haynes King, Georgia Tech
- Cade Klubnik, Clemson
- Behren Morton, Texas Tech
- Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
- Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
- Cole Payton, North Dakota State
- Sawyer Robertson, Baylor
- Ty Simpson, Alabama
Last year, Colorado's Shedeur Sanders declined to throw at the Combine and saw his draft stock plummet from projected top-10 pick all the way to the fifth round. In the void he left, prospects previously projected to be Day 2 or 3 selections had all the focus on them, and they took advantage of that spotlight.
That's how Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart (No. 25 overall) and Louisville's Tyler Shough (No. 40) saw their stock skyrocket after participating in Indianapolis. Could any of the above be the next big risers?
I'm also not suggesting Mendoza is going to see his stock drop like Sanders did. It's incredibly hard to imagine the Raiders getting cold feet after the perfect season he helped orchestrate for the Hoosiers, and not throwing in Indy is far from the only reason Shedeur fell on draft weekend.
His noted absence from throwing exercises, however, just provides the rest of the field a chance to entice a QB-needy team like the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers to reach for a surprise prospect. Alabama's Ty Simpson could be a tempting candidate considering he's already gotten a boost of positive media coverage in recent weeks, and Garrett Nussmeier was receiving first-round buzz as recently as 12 months ago. With nowhere else for front offices to look, prospects will have a chance to make a huge impression.
Raiders lose trade leverage at No. 1 overall
Again, I'd be shocked if the Las Vegas didn't pick Mendoza with the first overall pick, but any good NFL general manager explores every option ahead of draft night.
The No. 1 selection is the most valuable in the entire offseason, and there's always at least one team lower in the order that's willing to acquire it. However, it's the negotiation over price that typically keeps away any buyers.
The Raiders probably lost a little bit of their negotiating power with Mendoza declining to showcase his skills in front of the rest of the league. If he had gone out there and impressed, teams going into the 2026 draft fully expecting to punt on QB until 2027 — like the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals — may have been more willing to pay the steep price to move up for Mendoza. That's less likely to happen now.
The 2027 NFL Draft strategy shifts significantly
So, let's go a little further down the rabbit hole on this butterfly effect. Mendoza not throwing at the combine means the rest of the QB class gets the spotlight. There's bound to be one that exceeds expectations and sees his draft stock soar.
Mendoza will still go No. 1 overall, but perhaps desperate teams like the Jets, Cardinals, Steelers and Dolphins don't want to wait until next season for Moore or Manning.
For the sake of this exercise, let's say the Steelers take Simpson at No. 21 overall. Pittsburgh probably doesn't get back to the playoffs with him at the helm, or even current backup Mason Rudolph. That means a top-15 pick isn't out of the question for general manager Omar Khan (if he still has a job by then).
Depending on where the Jets, Cardinals and Dolphins sit, all four of their decisions in 2027 have to be viewed through a different lens. There are trades available that weren't previously, and that impacts future rosters and changes the trajectory of whole franchises.
It's hard to know exactly how teams will react, but Mendoza's decision to sit out the throwing portion of the Combine will affect more than just his future home in Las Vegas.