Unai Emery should be heading to Old Trafford this weekend as the front-runner to become the next Manchester United manager.
I suspect he does not rank high among the candidates. That is good news for Aston Villa, but it must be frustrating for one of the best, and still most underrated, coaches in Europe.
For Emery not to be under serious consideration says plenty about modern football. By any metric, he would be the perfect coach to revive United. For me, only Pep Guardiola ranks higher of those currently managing in England.
Here is a manager who wins trophies, has a clear football vision, a track record of revitalising clubs in need of a mini-revolution to break into the Champions League, and who demands respect while leading with authority. Add the fact he is now proven in the Premier League, and such coaches are in short supply.
Instead, United appear to be seduced by other candidates. Thomas Tuchel was among the favourites before he signed a new England contract. Luis Enrique is the dream choice if he fancies the Premier League, while some want United to lure Carlo Ancelotti from Brazil. Now 66, is Ancelotti really the right fit for United at this point in their history and his career? Julian Nagelsmann is highly sought after, but waiting for a coach preoccupied with the World Cup is odd when there are others who can get to work sooner.
Porto’s Francesco Farioli is among the hot, young properties, but after the experience with Ruben Amorim, who had a similar reputation at Sporting Lisbon, United are unlikely to follow that path. And then Michael Carrick’s credentials will improve if he keeps United above Villa, having just overtaken them to go into third place.
Emery is not part of the conversation but he should be. The puzzling question is why?
Sadly for Emery, and happily for Villa, the Spaniard is painted as an overachiever at clubs trying to challenge the elite, and an underachiever at those who consider themselves already part of it.
Record at PSG and Arsenal a red flag
Emery’s work at Valencia, Villarreal, Sevilla and Villa has cemented an unwanted reputation: that he has found his level just below the established superpowers. If you are a sleeping giant struggling in mid-table with aspirations of finishing fourth and winning the Europa League, he is the man to call. If, like United, you are dreaming big to win the Premier League and Champions League in the next five years, Emery’s record at Arsenal and Paris St-Germain is a red flag.
Emery was a title and cup winner in France, but the dominance of PSG in Ligue 1 means he was judged against Champions League performances, where he suffered some tough losses, especially to Barcelona, when a 4-0 home-leg win was overturned in 2017.
His Arsenal career is not fondly remembered because he was unable to balance domestic and European demands when leading the club to the Europa League final in 2019, losing to Chelsea while failing to qualify for the Champions League. In retrospect, it is ironic that Emery’s style was regarded as too much of a departure from Arsène Wenger’s romanticism when you see how pragmatic the quadruple-chasing side are today. Wenger was also one of the great, intelligent football communicators of the Premier League era. Emery’s obvious struggles with the English language during his Arsenal years were also an issue.
Whenever Emery’s career is assessed, it feels like the blemishes at PSG and Arsenal are amplified as much as the triumphs elsewhere. In the past, such experiences would be regarded as part of the learning journey that makes Emery an even better coach. His work at Villa suggests he is.
But there is another, more significant factor working against the 54-year-old which explains United’s apparent lack of interest. Emery is one of the few symbols of a bygone era when managers wanted and assumed complete control of a club’s football operations.
Once he was thriving at Villa, it was an easy decision for the hierarchy to allow Emery to proceed with minimal interference. Whenever Emery’s name is referenced in connection to a “bigger” job, Villa fans argue that he would never have the same love and power at one of the traditional Champions League teams, and they have a point.
Emery appointment would shift power dynamic back to the manager
Sporting directors are proving adept at making themselves the most important people in the room. Appointing Emery is effectively a means of enhancing the role of the manager and diminishing that of the directors. That would therefore be a likely cause of friction in the future.
At Villa, it seemed like Emery appointed his own sporting director when Monchi arrived, and when there was a disagreement about transfer policy, the executive left. That will carry weight with members of United’s board, even though candidates should be judged on their coaching and managing skills, not how their arrival would affect the job security of those above them.
It has reached a point where if a younger, up-and-coming version of Sir Alex Ferguson was on the market, some sporting directors would probably hesitate to approach him because they would fear for their own relevance.
The suggestion that United’s boardroom would chew Emery up and spit him out like Arsenal and PSG after the first bad spell has merit. If he started a new season as he did at Villa Park last August, Emery would be fire-fighting and it would make it tougher to lead such a spectacular revival as he has.
Despite this, it is naive to believe Emery would not be attracted by the United job if he felt they really wanted him.
Emery reminds me of Benitez
There will come a point in his Villa career – just like Eddie Howe at Newcastle United – where he will be asking himself how much further he can take the club. Villa and Newcastle fans are right to hope for ultimate success under their brilliant manager, but the financial reality suggests otherwise. No matter how well Villa or Newcastle do, United and others can spend mega millions in one summer transfer window and leapfrog them. It means Villa are always trying to punch above their weight, which they are managing to do once more this season.
Emery is the single biggest reason Villa are fighting to get back into the Champions League for the second time in three years, despite their limitations because of the profitability and sustainability rules.
As a coach, he is among the best at turning those previously considered average and making them look good, or those of rich potential such as Morgan Rogers and helping them become international class. The concern is whether he has the same galvanising impact on a dressing room full of players who already consider themselves at the top level.
He reminds me of Rafa Benítez in that way.
It could be that, like Benítez, Emery is born to flourish in an environment where the players are willing to listen and learn, and less suited to those where established stars think they already know everything and have heard it all before.
Emery does not want to be remembered as “the Europa League guy” even after another impressive 1-0 away victory in Lille on Thursday night. He may need to keep working miracles at Villa Park – and to reverse the trend giving more power to the director of football – to convince a club of United’s status and wealth to turn him into a Premier League and Champions League winner.